LIES, DAMNED LIES AND IMMIGRATION

The debate over east European immigration is degenerating into "hysteria", leading think-tanks have warned.

As Downing Street indicated that Tony Blair has yet to decide on whether to allow Romanians and Bulgarians free entry into the UK when their countries join the European Union next year, experts warned yesterday that opponents were basing their arguments on ignorance and prejudice.

It follows weeks of furious newspaper headlines and political sabre rattling denouncing the threat posed by new arrivals from the former communist bloc. Stories have claimed they will overstretch Britain's schools and hospitals, drive down wages on building sites, as well as threatening a violent crime wave and even a new HIV epidemic.

The independent Immigration Advisory Service (IAS) condemned " ill-informed comment" about the flow of workers, likening it to the " hysteria" that surrounded the accession of Poland and other countries in 2004. "The reality is somewhat different from the comments of those who have not examined the facts carefully enough before making wild statements," said Keith Best, the IAS's chief executive.

Estimates on how many Romanians and Bulgarians will come to the UK differ widely - ranging from 300,000 in the first 20 months to 56,000 in the first year. The Home Office said there was no official projection.

But the Government signalled yesterday it was preparing to take a more cautious line than the previous day's assertion by Alistair Darling, the Trade and Industry Secretary, that there would be no "open door" for citizens of the two countries. A Downing Street spokeswoman insisted a decision would be made "at the appropriate time" later in the year.

Mr Darling's remarks were interpreted as meaning that Romanians and Bulgarians could have to wait up to seven years before they enjoy the same entry rights as citizens of other former communist states. But the No 10 spokeswoman said Mr Darling had simply been discussing the need for a " mature debate" on the subject of immigration generally. "He was talking of the general need for managed migration. In terms of Bulgaria and Romania, decisions on that will be made at the appropriate time," she said.

Danny Sriskandarajah, the associate director of the Institute for Public Policy Research, warned that attitudes were hardening against the eastern European arrivals. "We have had stories about benefit-seeking asylum seekers, we have had illegal immigrant stories. This has now moved on to the latest arrivals, which just happen to be eastern European. There are sections of society and the media which always set out to scapegoat migrant groups just because they are easy targets," he said.

Leading figures in the Labour Party have insisted that there has to be a pause while the UK economy absorbs the estimated 600,000 migrant workers from the 10 countries that joined the EU in 2004. Views on immigration hardened when figures out last week showed unemployment at its highest level for six years and when it emerged the Government had seriously underestimated numbers from the last group of new member states.

Some business leaders remain strong supporters of eastern European workers. Sir Digby Jones, the former director general of the Confederation of British Industry, said Poles had made a major contribution to the UK economy. " You cannot blame migrants if they are prepared to ... work for wages, which though they may seem low to us, are a lot higher than in their own country. They come here with the skills and the education that we no longer seem to be able to provide our own workforce," he said.

Stephen Ratcliffe, a spokesman for the Major Contractors Group, which represents the 14 largest UK construction companies, said that far from wages falling, the shortage of skilled craftsmen was driving them up. " We would have faced serious capacity issues if the industry had not been able to source craft trades from eastern Europe," he said.

The Tory spokesman on immigration, Damian Green, accused the Government of having tried to give the impression it was ready to take action to control migrant workers when that was not the case. "It's clear that at the heart of Government there is either confusion or dishonesty about this matter," he said.

By Jonathan Brown and Andy McSmith