NATIONAL REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF THE REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA FOR THE PERIOD 2005-2015

Съдържание
	Introduction
	Comparative analysis of the socio-economic development of the planning regions
	Population and demographic situation
	Economic development and cohesion
	Social development and cohesion
	Factors determining growth rates, employment and competitive capacity
	Environment
	Territorial development and cohesion
	Assessment of the capacity for utilization of funds allocated under the eu structure funds and cohesion fund at local and regional level
	Major conclusions
	SWOT analysis
	Concept for the national territory development
	Development of the settlement network and urban structure in the long-term plan
	Development of the infrastructure corridors
	Improvement of the environment situation of areas with cumultive environmental problems
	Vision, goals and priorities of regional development
	Vision
	Strategic goals
	Regional development priorities
	Implementation of NRDS
	Institutional organizations for the implementation of NSRD
	Economic and financial mechanisms for the assistance of regional development
	Monitoring, evaluation and updating of NSRD

A population drop has been observed in all planning region during the period 1997-2003, however it is the most significant in the Northwestern Region (-2.2%) and the North Central Region (-1.4%). The drop in the Southwestern Region is the lowest (-0.3%). The major reasons for that are the negative natural population growth and domestic migration.

The natural population growth for the period 1997-2003 is negative in all planning regions. The highest negative values are maintained in the Northwestern Region (-11.8 ‰, which is twice the national average of -5.7‰), followed by the North Central Region (-8.6 ‰). The rest of the regions have lower values of negative natural population growth as compared to the national average. The steadiness of these values is the result of the ageing of the population and the changes in its reproductive aptitudes, which in recent years are to a large extent the consequence of the low living standards.

Fig.2. Dynamics of the natural population growth, NSI

The intensity of domestic migration for the period 1997-2003 is approximately 22.5 ‰ (418 thousand people), however a diminishing trend has been observed (19.5 ‰ in 2003). About 2/3 of the migrants are in the age range of 10 to 39 years. As a whole, in the majority of regions the negative values of domestic migration increase or remain steady. Only in the Southwestern region the net migration rate is positive and demonstrates constant increase in intensity (from 2.4 ‰ in 1997 to 7.6 ‰ in 2003). This region attracts the domestic migration flows mainly because of the higher opportunities for diverse employment in the capital and the dense network of educational infrastructure (particularly in the field of higher education).  

The trends in development of migration are as follows: persisting concentration of the population in the developed urban centers because of the better (or still reckoned to be better) employment opportunities, the increase of the relative share of urban migration in "urban-urban" or "urban-rural" direction, the redistribution of the population among the various cities and the ongoing concentration in the large cities for the account of the small and medium-size cities/towns.
With respect to the population density the least populated are the Northwestern Region (49.8 persons/km2) and the Southeastern Region (53.4 persons/km2). Close to the latter are the values for the North Central Region (63.6 persons/km2) and the Northeastern Region (64.5 persons/km2), as well as those of the South Central Region (70.7 persons/km2). The highest population density is characteristic for the Southwestern Region (103.9 persons/km2). Vast areas with low population density (mainly mountainous and rural areas) exist in each of the planning regions, while the large cities and district centers stand out with high population density.
In terms of the Population Density Indicator the disparities in Bulgaria are quite moderate (the correlation between the highest and the lowest levels in 2003 was 2.1) and rank as the lowest in comparison with those in the European regions.
The gender structure of the population is characterized by predominance of women over men. There are 106 women (105 in the EU) to every 100 men and that level has been steady for several decades now. The ratios at the regional level are identical. 

 Fig.3. Population growth, 1997-2003, NSI

The gender structure of the population is characterized by predominance of women over men. There are 106 women (105 in the EU) to every 100 men and that level has been steady for several decades now. The ratios at the regional level are identical. 

The age structure of the population in all planning regions is of the regression type: the number and the share of the aged population are increasing and those of the younger generations show a downward trend.

There are definite disparities in the age structure of the population among the different planning regions (Fig. 4). It is more unfavourable in the Northwestern Region and North Central Region, where the relative shares of the population above 65 years of age are the highest and those of the population below 15 years of age are the lowest.

The low share of the population below 15 years of age in the Southwestern Region is due to the predominance of population aged 15-64 as a consequence of the concentration of workforce in the city of Sofia. The parameters for the age structure of the population in the rest of the regions are close to the national average. Increase of the relative share of the population aged 65 and above and diminishing of the population below 15 years of age is observed in all the regions. With the exception of the Southwestern Region, diminishing of the absolute figures for the population in the age group 15-64 is observed in all the rest of the regions. The internal disparities within the individual regions are much higher.

The negative change in the age structure of the population leads to higher economic burden on the population in the age group 15-64. For the period 1997-2003 the coefficient of dependence of the elderly population  shows an increasing trend. The manifestation of this trend is particularly crucial in the Northwestern Region (34.0%) and North Central Region (28.9%) (Fig. 5). The growth and the high rates of this coefficient indicate that the costs for the elderly in terms of health care and social services are becoming ever higher.

The comparisons on the European scale reveal that as far as the values of this coefficient are concerned the planning regions in Bulgaria are close to those in the Member States of EU15 and worse placed as compared to the New Associated States and Romania except for Hungary (with which they are similar).

Fig.4. Age structure of the population by planning regions, 2003

According to the 2001 population census the group of ethnic Bulgarians comprises 83.9% of the total population of Bulgaria, the Turkish ethnic group - 9.4%, the Roma ethnic group - 4.7% and miscellaneous - 0.9%. The regional disparities in the ethnic composition of the population are manifested in the higher share of the population from the Turkish ethnic group in the Northeastern Region (22.5%) and of Roma population - in the Northwestern Region (8.5%). The share of the population of the Turkish ethnic group is the lowest in the Northwestern Region (0.4%) and the Southwestern Region (1.8%), and that of the Roma population - in the North Central Region and the Southwestern Region (2.8%). The intra-regional disparities are characterized by a higher share of the population of the Roma ethnic group in the districts Montana and Sliven (12%) and Dobrich, and the lowest - in Smolyan and Kardjali (below 1%).

The analysis of the demographic development of the planning regions in Bulgaria reveals the below-detailed characteristics:

• The population in all regions is diminishing and along with it there is also a drop in the contingents in reproductive age and of the active population.
• The demographic situation is the most unfavourable in the Northwestern Region, marked by great losses of human resources, gravely deteriorated age structure and reproduction rate featuring high negative natural growth. Similar poor characteristics of the demographic situation are observed in the North Central Region as well.
• Specific demographic development is noted in the Southwestern Region, in which the capital Sofia is located with its high reproductive and labour potential.

Fig.5. Coefficient of elderly dependence